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EAs 2020 draws to a close, it’s time to analyse what has been achieved and also what is expected from the next one. For almost two decades, Saxo Bank analysts have been imagining ten outrageous scenarios in which we would be deeply affected. These forecasts include decisions, policies, monetary and trade policy, even changes in market trends.
No major macroeconomic analysis saw the coming of the pandemic that changed the world forever. Neither the big investment banks nor the specialist publications saw the threat that scientists – and Bill Gates– had been predicting for decades. What if the world changes again unexpectedly in 2021? What if an unpredictable event of great impact causes another shock?
Ten extreme predictions for 2021
- A bankruptcy for the Covid-19 vaccine. The rapid economic recovery due to the vaccine increases inflation and unemployment, and with it, the application of restrictive measures that spill over into a bankruptcy.
- Amazon “buys” Cyprus. The company moves its headquarters to that country because it benefits from reducing its GDP debt and rewriting its tax regulations.
- Germany bails out France. France’s financial system collapses and it has no choice but to ask Berlin for a bailout. So the European Central Bank prints money to help them.
- The “blockhain” puts an end to false news. Disinformation increases at a critical level so Twitter and Facebook decide to apply this technology which validates content and sources.
- China against the dollar. The launch of an official digital currency in China threatens the role of the dollar as an international reserve currency, betting on – its currency – the yuan.
- Silver at the price of gold. The demand for silver for industrial uses is increasing, especially for the production of solar panels.
- A fund to curb inequality. Almost half of the current jobs will be obsolete by 2030, causing an increase in inequality. The solution: a fund for workers displaced by technology.
- New technologies give wings to emerging countries. Internet by satellite will reduce the cost of Internet access and increase the coverage area, improving the productivity of business and education.
- The abundance of energy. An advanced artificial intelligence algorithm allows the development of a new energy design. This results in an energy abundance without a shortage of food or water.
- The universal minimum wage in large cities. Among the measures in response to Covid-19 is the new universal basic income. This measure would lead to a rebalancing of the structural forces in society.
If you want to know more in detail about these ten predictions you can expand here.